“Humanity is acquiring all the right technology for all the wrong reasons.”–R. Buckminster Fuller
“Engage your mind before you shift your mouth into gear.”–Unknown
My father used to warn me about talking before thinking. This definitely applies to blogging as well. One should cogitate before pushing the “publish” button.
I said in a previous post that I would present two major types of articles herein, but I didn’t think before pushing that button. As it turns out, there will be three. As previously promised, the first category of posts in the How to Think About The Future category will summarize basic methods, philosophies and general assumptions about foresight.
The second, category, The Future of…, will tackle the future of various domains of human endeavor, such as education, politics, environment, economy, healthcare and various subsets thereof.
The third category, the one I left out originally, is The Bleeding Edge, which will delve into critical emerging technologies that may potentially upend the established course of human activities, for better or for worse, or probably both. Here are some of the hot topics to look forward to, hopefully in the not-to-distant future.
Gene Editing–Last November, a New York Times Magazine article, aptly titled The CRISPR Quandary, was even more aptly subtitled A new gene editing tool might create an ethical morass–or it might make revising nature seem natural. As this ground-breaking technology is advancing far faster than the ethical and regulatory guidelines to control it, it is well on its way to doing both.
Artificial Intelligence/The Singularity–While CRISPR has so far escaped broad public scrutiny, Artificial Intelligence certainly has not. With warnings of the potential dangers of strong AI from the likes of Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk getting big play in the media, even while Ray Kurzweil waxes almost poetic on the virtues of an A.I. singularity. The controversies continues to grow.
Robotics–The combination of robotics and A.I. is rapidly accelerating, offering the potential for great convenience and efficiency, but also wholesale upheavals in the world of work. Some pundits project that automation of various forms may obsolete up to 50% of all jobs in the near future.
3D Printing–No field of work is more susceptible to job loss due to automation than is manufacturing. And while the progress of 3D printing has been much slower than some other technologies, it still holds out the promise of an eventual sea change in the world of fabrication–potentially breaking up major national and regional manufacturing plants into hundred of thousands of small local sites. The skills to design and run 3D printing applications are specialized and very different from those of traditional manufacturing.
Nanotechnology–If ever there was a double-edged sword in technology, this is it. While the most optimistic prognostications outlined by Eric Drexler in his landmark 1986 book, Engines of Creation, are still a distant pipe dream, progress is being made. And while those optimistic dreams envision a world of unlimited abundance on demand, the most pessimistic counter views see the potential for catastrophic human harm, either inadvertently or by intentional malice. Kurt Vonnegut warned of these dangers as long ago as 1963 in his sci-fi classic Cat’s Cradle.
Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality–Poised to become a hot new consumer electronics category, Virtual Reality devices offer a wide range of very useful applications, from education, to training and entertainment. But there are downsides, too. Will some people get so addicted to it that they lose contact with actual reality? And at least one futurist has forecast a huge market for virtual reality porn. If you’re not familiar with the concept of teledildonics, well, you might be in for a shock.
Blockchain–The shared public ledger technology that enables Bitcoin cryptocurrency is rapidly being advocated and to some extent deployed in a variety other domains including education, law and banking. It is massively distributed, open, and indelible. But even this might have some downside.
The hope here is to cover these and many other emerging technology issues in the coming weeks and months. Keep an eye out for an accompanying podcast as well, assuming I can get my technical act together.