Podcast #24: The State of The Future, with Jerome Glenn

The future ain’t what it used to be.”–Yogi Berra

“We’re doing a lot better than people think.”–Jerome Glenn, on The State of The Future.

Ah, you have to love Yogi.  He had no idea what he was talking about.  But–surprise, surprise–the blind squirrel does occasionally find a nut.  Because the future and all of its possibilities–its challenges and opportunities–is constantly changing.  Just ask Jerome Glenn and his colleagues in Millennium Project,  who have issued 19 editions of The State of The Future over the past 20-plus years.  I did;  that is the basis for Seeking Delphi™ podcast #24: The State of The Future with Jerome Glenn.

All Seeking Delphi™  podcasts are available on iTunes, PlayerFM, and  YouTube.  You can also follow us on Facebook and on twitter @MarkSackler

 

Jerome Glenn: click for bio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seeking Delphi™ Episode #24: The State of The Future with Jerome Glenn

YouTube slide show, Episode #24

The State of The Future on Amazon.com

Global Futures Intelligence System

A reminder that this and all Seeking Delphi ™podcasts are available on iTunes, PlayerFM, and  YouTube.  You can also follow us on Facebook and on twitter @MarkSackler

News of The Future This Week: August 12, 2018

“I could have gone on flying in space forever”–Yuri Gagarin

 

Move over, Buck Rogers.  The U.S. administration wants to build a space force. With budget deficits approaching 10 figures, it could just be posturing–or wishful thinking.   Elon Musk inisists he isn’t posturing on getting to Mars, though.  He’s all over the space news this week–for a change.

While you’re reading about all this week’s future-related  news, don’t forget that you can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

 Space–U.S. vice president addressed the Pentagon with details of a proposed Space Force to be implemented by 2020.  With a trillion dollar deficit looming, and a congressional majority composed of Republicans who (supposedly) espouse smaller government, it will be interesting to see where the funding will come from.

–The space force may be in doubt, but it’s full speed ahead to Mars, as far as Elon Musk is concerned.  He convened a secret Mars workshop, attended by prominant scientists and engineers, to address colonization of the Red Planet.

Meanwhile, Russia intends to compete with Elon and his SpaceX for heavy payload launch capability–eventually.  Their rocket with 70 ton launch capacity is targeted for a rollout in 2028.  Don’t look now, Vladimir, but with ten years lead time, Elon is bound to build something bigger.

TESS, image credit: NASA

–For you exo-planet fans, new estimates from NASA suggest it’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite could identify up to 10,000 new alien worlds over the next two years.  As many as 3500 of them could be smaller than Neptune, down to and including Earth-sized planets.

Automation/future of work–  Back on the ground, Elon Musk has other issues to deal with.  His plans to fully automate a Tesla plant haven’t gone so smoothly.

Alternative energy/Environment–Elon has competiton in the alternative-energy trucking space as well.  The ironically named Nikola has reportedly raised $100 million dollars for the launch its hyrdrogen-powered trucking venture.  

The Human Condition–Millennium Project CEO and State of The Future lead author, Jerome Glenn, says that we have done better than most people expected.  He goes so far as to say, in this Seeking Delphi™ interview linked below, that “we are winning as a species.”  He does acknowledge critical issues that could derail the trajectory of progress, however.

Episode #24: The State of The Future, with Jerome Glenn

Seeking Delphi™ podcasts are available on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

News of The Future This Week: August 5, 2018

“Hard work never killed anybody, but why take a chance?”–Edgar Bergen

 

The future of work is a very “now” debate.  While many see an A.I. job-killing armageddon over the next 10-20 years, others are more sanguine.  This week’s stories include some new published points of view that lean to the more optimistic side.

While you’re reading about all this week’s future-related  news, don’t forget that you can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

 Automation/Future of Work–Worried about losing your job to A.I, robotics, or some such form of automation?  According to this report in Next Big Future, the 2020’s AND 2030’S could see a tech-driven economic boom.   Maybe it won’t be so bad.

–Boom or no, technology is bound to kill at least some jobs.  Two technology authors, reporting in Forbes, discuss the job opportunities in the era of man/machine interface.

To the above end, a Stanford scholar says that artificial intelligence will both disrupt and benefit workplace.

Image Credit: Tech Insider

Artificial Intelligence–Read any good novels lately?  According to one computer scientist, artificial intelligence may be writing them within ten years.  

Hackernoon explains the how and why of using A.I. to make better predictions.  Uh oh, I hope futurists won’t be rendered obsolete!

DARPA aims to help keep the current U.S. lead in development of A.I.  They’ve initiated an excelerated program to award $1-million breakthrough development grants within three months of proposal submission, with an aim towards providing results within 18 months of award.

A report from QY Research forecasts exponential growth in the market for A.I. software over the next few years.  They project the annual global market value to grow to $78 billion by 2025,  up from $2.65 billion in 2017.

Future Energy–A recent technology breakthrough could triple the output of solar cells.  Researchs in the UK have come up with a method to increase capture efficiency from 20% to 60%.

Award-winning Mars habitat design by Team Zopherus of RRogers, Arkansas

Space Exploration–Speaking of government research grants, NASA is in the game, too.  They’ve awarded $100,000 to five private enterprises competing to design a Mars habitat.

NASA has named a class of 9 astronauts to fly the first commercially built manned spacecrafts. Their partnerships with Boeing and SpaceX hope to yeild the first mission before the end of next year.

A new NASA report suggests it is impossible to terraform Mars.  Well, at least impossible using today’s technology.  Elon Musk isn’t buying it, and neither am I.  What about tomorrow’s technology?  What a bout Clarke’s first law?  “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”

Coming Soon–The next Seeking Delphi™ podcast will feature and interview with Jerome Glenn, co-founder and executive director of The Millennium Project, on their most recent edition of The State of The Future.

You can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

News of The Future This Week: July 8, 2018

“Artficial Intelligence will reach human levels by around 2029.”–Ray Kurzweil

“There is no reason and no way that a human mind can keep up with an artificial intelligence machine by 2035.”–Gray Scott

 

Make no mistake about it.  Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is still a pipe dream.  Nobody is exactly sure how to create  it.  But that doesn’t seem to discourage technology inventors like Ray Kurzweil and techno-philosophers like Gray Scott from their certainty that someone eventually will.  I remain agnostic on the question; my role is to report on it, not to predict it.  Who knows, maybe in a few years an A.I. will be able to predict itself.  What comes first, the chicken or the A.I.?

While you’re reading about all this week’s future-related  news, don’t forget that you can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

 Artificial Intelligence–Is Ray Kurzweil’s prediction of human level A.I. by 2029 realistic?  This evaluation of the global A.I. race, by The Lifeboat Foundation, suggests it is.

source: Lifebooat Foundation

–The A.I. job apocalypse forecasts just keep on coming.  The latest to raise the red flag is hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio.  Speaking on CNBC this week, he said that A.I., while increasing productivity, it is also exacerbating the wealth gap and has become a national emergency.

According to The Economist, A.I. poses a unique threat of fake videos so realistic, that dead celebrities may essentially become immortal.   Elvis is alive and in the virtual building.

Sayonara, Ralph Kramden. image: Baidu

Chinese conglomerate, Baidu, has announced a new artificial intelligence chip that it intends to use in a number of applications.  The first such use will be in autonomous buses to be launched in Japan next year.

Researchers from UK firm, Wayve, have created a neural network A.I. that they claim can be taught to drive a car in 15-20 minutes.  Now if they could only train your teenager to avoid dinging the family sedan at the mall.

Biometrics–London’s trial of A.I. for facial recognition has been a complete bust.  Yet a 98% false positive I.D. rate has not deterred the enthusiasm of the city’s chief of police.

–In the meantime, Australia has launched its own facial scanning scheme.  It’s a trial to replace passports with facial recognition scans at the Sydney airport.  Let’s hope the accuracy is better than London’s.

Home, sweet (3D-printed) home.

3D printed house–We’ve been hearing about 3D printed housing for some time now.  For the first time, a multi-room 3D-printed house has been occupied in France. It took 54 hours to print and its creators claim a construction cost savings of 20% versus conventional methods.

Space Exploration–Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has announced intentions to land astronauts on the moon by 2023.  It’s a first step to what they hope will be the establishment of a permanent manned base.

Next Big Future reports that SpaceX is helping NASA stay out in front of China through 2030.  The key is getting their BFR off the ground several years sooner.

You can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

Podcast #23: A Conversation With Joanne Pransky, Robot Psychiatrist

 “I can’t imagine a future without robots.”–Nolan Bushnell

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In the popular HBO series Westworld, robotic hosts are depicted as being placed into a kind of psychiatric analysis by their creators.  Could this actually happen one day?  Joanne Pransky thinks it will.  She bills herself as the World’s First Robotic Psychiatrist® (yes, she even registered that title!).  She was dubbed the real life Susan Calvin by Isaac Asimov, after the robot psychologist he created in his classic 1950 short story anthology, I, Robot.  In this episode of the Seeking Delphi™ podcast, host Mark Sackler talks to her about this and other significant issues in the man/machine relationships to come.

All Seeking Delphi™  podcasts are available on iTunes, PlayerFM, and  YouTube.  You can also follow us on Facebook and on twitter @MarkSackler

 

Asimov with Pransky c.1989

Pransky and friend.

 

 

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Podcast #23 A Conversation With Joanne Pransky, Robot Psychiatrist

YouTube slide show of podcast #23 with Joanne Pransky

Cover of a 1950’s edition of Asimov’s I, Robot

Sofia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joanne Pransky bio

 

SXSW 2018 Minicast #2 Redux: Can We Create Consciousness In A Machine?

A reminder that this and all Seeking Delphi ™podcasts are available on iTunes, PlayerFM, and  YouTube.  You can also follow us on Facebook and on twitter @MarkSackler

News of The Future This Week: June 17, 2018

 “We are losing privacy at an alarming rate – we have none left.”–John McAfee

 

Is privacy dead?  Speaking on the Seeking Delphi™ podcast back in April, futurist Gray Scott said that privacy is not so much dead, as it seems to have become irrelevant.  Our desire for free online content has motivated us to give it up for good.  But this week’s lead stories, on surveillance levels in China and an A.I. that seemingly knows  your behavior before you do, take the issue to whole new levels.

While you’re reading about all this week’s future-related  news, don’t forget that you can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

Privacy/Surveillance–Already using facial scanning technology to make sure students are paying attention in class, and brain wave sensors to determine workers’ emotional states, China has taken its Big Brother approach to controlling a step farther.  Starting next year it will require RFID tracking chips installed on all newly registered cars.

–If tracking your every move isn’t creepy enough, computer scientists at the University of Bonn have created a software program that can predict your actions five minutes into the future.  It might sound like a great thing to have at the race track (assuming it also would work on horses). But one has to wonder if it could ultimately lead to a Minority Report scenario.

Retail/Consumer futures–Do malls have a future in age of e-commerce?  According to Westfield Corporation, a major mall operator, they do–though by 2028 they might look quite different.

Westfield 2028

Transportation/Electric Vehicles/Self-Driving Cars–According to a report by Washington-based think tank Securing America’s Future Energy, self-driving cars aren’t likely to steal your job until 2040 or so.  They also project that autonomous vehicles will boost the US economy by $800 billion by 2050.

Artist’s conception of high-speed electric O’Hare shuttle.

Elon Musk’s The Boring Company won a bid to provide underground transportation from downtown Chicago to O’Hare international airport.  According to Musk, the high-speed electric vehicle system should be completed within 3 years.

Space Launch Systems–California-based SpinLaunch Systems has raised $40 million to develop a space catapult launch system by 2022.   The aim is provide orbital launch capabilities for materials and supplies for under $500,000 per mission.  The system will not be able to support manned missions–the G forces generated will be too great for human tolerances.

An estimated half million bits of space junk–leftover pieces of old satellites and space craft–orbit the earth and pose a collision threat to future missions.  Russia, among others, wants to develop a laser system to blast the annoyances out of orbit.


Robotics/Coming Attractions–
The next Seeking Delphi™ podcast will feature an interview with Joanne Pransky, who bills herself as The Worlds First Robotic Psychiatrist.®

You can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

News of The Future This Week: June 1, 2018

“For the wise man looks into space and knows there is no limited dimensions.”–Lao Tzu

 

After decades of glacial progress, the space age is about to re-accelerate.  And the big players are not just NASA and the Russian space agency.   Space Commerce–private enterprise–is set to lead the way.

While you’re reading about all this week’s future-related  news, don’t forget that you can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook 

Space commerce/exploration/colonization–According to Next Big Future, we are on the dawn of the true space age.  And Elon Musk and his BFR are leading the vision.

–Planning on going to Mars?   Very challenging.   Plan on maintaining a colony on Mars?  Almost beyond challenging–especially when it comes to procreation.

China has invited scientists from all over the world to apply to visit their planned space station, scheduled for launch in late 2022.  No word yet on whether they’ll place limits on U.S. STEM students.

Jeff Bezos says he plans to build a moon base by partnering with NASA and the European Space Agency.  Plans is the operative word–there is no commitment at this time from either of the aforementioned agencies.

–Genetic editing isn’t just for Terra Firma.  Singularity Hub reports that NASA is engineering microbes for use off-planet.   The hope is that they can be used to produce nutrients and building materials.

Artificial Intelligence–Just hours after it was revealed that a major employee backlash had hit Google,  they announced they will discontinue developing A.I. for military applications after it’s current Department of Defense contract expires next year.  A wave of resignations and petition signings turned the tide.

In a study by the National Institute of Standards and Technology artificial intelligence equaled human experts in facial recognition.  Furthermore, the collaboration of A.I. and human experts acheved near perfect results.

Robotics/Coming Attractions–The next Seeking Delphi™ podcast will feature an interview with Joanne Pransky, who bills herself as The Worlds First Robotic Psychiatrist.®

You can subscribe to Seeking Delphi™ podcasts on iTunes, PlayerFM, or YouTube (audio with slide show) and you can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook